The Rosin Bag: The Kids Are Alright

I guess now we know why the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario revoked the Rogers Centre's liquor licence for a couple of games this year. Some Toronto fans brought themselves into disrepute last night after causing a 10-minute delay in which Jim Leyland pulled his players off the field because of projectiles being thrown onto the surface. Stay classy, Toronto.

It's easy to scold these miscreants, but which is better: the lifeless suits who fill Air Canada Centre for every Leafs game, or the small group of Toronto FC agitators who got themselves pepper-spayed and tasered in Columbus*, or these yahoos who threw baseballs at Detroit Tigers outfielders? Fan passion is a needed ingredient to a healthy sports franchise (just ask Toronto FC), but some residents of society's underbelly mistake passion for drunken tomfoolery. The crowd I was a part of for the USA v. Canada game at Rogers Centre presented a much better example of desired fan behaviour; passionate support that never crossed the line (despite much alcohol being consumed on that festive day as well).

The incident occurred in the bottom of the eighth, and for a time I thought the story might end up being how Jays fans at the game refused to let their dire predictions for the season go unfulfilled, and snatch victory from the players by forfeiting the game through hooliganism. Thankfully calm was restored and the Jays were able to claim their first victory of the season on the strength of young bats inserted into this season's lineup.

It's a strange occurrence when Roy Halladay is not the story on a night that he's the starter. No; this night belonged to the Jays bats, namely Adam Lind (4-5, 6 RBI) and Travis Snider (2-4, HR, 2B), who pushed 12 runs across, including eight against an over-matched Justin Verlander. Every Jay got a hit last night. It was great to see Aaron Hill turn a double play again and Lyle Overbay bashing a double to the gap, great to see Vernon Wells and Alex Rios having good performances overshadowed. Let's hope this fight for the spotlight happens many more times this year.

For at least one day the Jays are ahead of the Yankees (snicker, snicker C.C. Sabathia), Red Sox and Devil Rays. Tonight, another youngster features for the Jays. David Purcey takes to the mound and we'll get to evaluate whether his hot Spring was as irrelevant as most Spring statistics. Here's hoping he can mesmerize the Tigers hitters and keep this good feeling going.

Viewing note: Sportsnet dropped the ball last night. The game was NOT available in HD in the Ottawa region. Viewers had to tune in to Sportsnet Pacific to watch the game because the Ottawa Senators were playing, but here's what's puzzling; the Senators game was in standard definition. It boggles the mind as to why Sportsnet would put the Sens game on their HD feed and their Jays telecast on standard def. Only once the Sens game ended did the HD channel carry the remainder of the Jays game. What a debacle. Oh, and Sportsnet - that "beautiful" camera view from the 5th deck? There's a reason those are the cheapest seats in the place - you can't see shit.

*For the record, I believe the incident in Columbus had more to do with badly trained police officers, but it does point to a disturbing trend for Toronto sports fans. You can also point to the incident at the FIFA Under World Cup involving the Chilean National team. Perhaps Toronto fans have been going to too many Bills games at Orchard park and this is learned behaviour.

The Rosin Bag: Toronto Blue Jays Forecast

Doom and gloom abounds when sifting through the piles of MLB previews and predictions concerning your 2009 Toronto Blue Jays. The obvious steps backwards taken by the franchise are easy to point out: losing A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum out for the year, Dustin McGowan doubtful in his ability contribute this year, two rookies in the starting rotation, no free agent activity to speak of...yup, that's the easy part.

The front office has announced that they're working towards contending - in 2010. The media has done a bang-up job of toeing the company line, predicting a dire 2009 season. Most outlets predict a finish no better than 4th place in the American League East. With the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles rounding out the division, I can see the logic in that.

So with no expectations and such dire predictions to live up to, where are we really?

Pitching:

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Blue Jays starting rotation:

1. Roy Halladay
2. David Purcey
3. Jesse Litsch
4. Ricky Romero
5. Scott Richmond

Although this does seem like the Jays are going into the season light on arms, it's not all that bad according to Batter's Box. Reading his post really lifted my spirits concerning this starting grid, and if things work out with just one of the youngsters, the Jays shouldn't be too far off of what they were in 2008.

The bullpen poses a lot of questions, mind you. Jeremy Accardo was just sent down to the minors and B.J. Ryan hasn't been able to hit any higher than 87 m.p.h. on the radar gun in Florida. Cito has actually begun musing about using Scott Downs in the closer role. Brandon League has had a fantastic Spring and Casey Janssen should be back to 100% after suffering through injuries. Jason Frasor is what he is, and the rest of the cast should be shuttling back and forth between Toronto and Las Vegas.

I get the feeling that watching the Jays pitch this summer will be anything but dull. How Brad Arnsberg manages the arms will be fun to monitor, and if one of the youngsters emerges as a stud we could be in for a heck of a fun ride.

Hitting:

Here's what I've got for a batting order this year:

1. Aaron Hill
2. Adam Lind
3. Alex Rios
4. Vernon Wells
5. Scott Rolen
6. Travis Snider
7. Lyle Overbay
8. Rod Barajas
9. Marco Scutaro

The Jays were near the basement in offense last season. Should a few "if's" come through, it will be fairly easy to surpass last year's numbers. The "if's" are the following:

- if Aaron Hill overcomes his concussion to return to 2007 form;
- if Adam Lind continues to improve;
- if Scott Rolen stays healthy and re-emerges as a slugging 3rd baseman;
- if Travis Snider is as good as advertised;
- if Lyle Overbay can start hitting doubles again;

If none of these happen, we have the 2008 Jays offense; nothing lost, nothing gained. If however some of these "if's" pull through, we've got something to cheer about it. It means the Jays can score more than one or two runs in support of Halladay. It means the young pitching staff can pitch with a lead on occasion. It means Wells and Rios can start taking more risks on the basepaths.

It means; a better offensive ball club than last year.

My advice to Jays fans watching their team this year is this; enjoy watching these young kids develop. It's going to be a hell of treat to watch Purcey, Lind, Snider and Romero come of age. Sprinkle a little greatness with Halladay, Wells and Rios and you've got a compelling product to follow. Some days will be frustrating, as stupid mistakes are inevitable with such a young team. But whatever you do, don't get down on these guys. Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace are going to work this bunch into a hitting powerhouse, and by the end of the season we'll have no trouble imagining a pennant in 2010.

My prediction for 2009? 84 wins and 3rd place in the division. That's right, only two wins less than last year. That's how much I think we've improved on offense, and I don't think we're as terrible on the mound as some are saying. The Yankees are nowhere near as good as advertised, and will miss the playoffs; they're the team the Blue Jays will beat for 3rd place.

Can't wait until Monday.

Spring Is In the Air

Ok, well maybe not in Ottawa where it's currently 2 Celsius, but everywhere I look I see signs of baseball's return (again, not in Ottawa). The purpose of this post isn't to offer you my Blue Jays Season Forecast (I won't go so far as to call it a preview - calling it a forecast gives me as much leeway as a weatherman's predictions), but rather to plug a fantastic blog I've been reading the past couple weeks.

It's called Inside the Majors, and it's written by former Toronto Blue Jays Assistant General Manager Bart Given (that's a lot of CAPS). There's a tonne of great insight from a front office perspective - stuff you wouldn't see from beat reporters or other media sources.

I've added it to my Points of Interest for your to peruse, but a couple of posts that I particularly enjoyed were Second Guessing Managerial Decisions, which lifts the veil of secrecy on a Jim Fregosi "decision" from a few years ago, and You Be The GM - Travis Snider (pictured above). From the former:

After the game the media asked Fregosi about the move, and he replied with a statement along the line of “Sometimes the players make the decisions for you.”

No one presses him on it.

Well after the game, I found out the whole story.

It turns out Fregosi had no intention of hitting for Fullmer, but he never showed and none of the staff could find him in the clubhouse. I’m not sure exactly where he was, but knowing the ultra-intense Fullmer - he was likely waggling a bat somewhere working on his swing.

And from the latter:

A MLB player becomes eligible for free agency once he has amassed six full seasons of service time. If Snider breaks camp with the Blue Jays, he is on schedule to become a free agent after the 2014 season. If optioned until May 15, he wouldn’t have the ability to become a free agent until after the 2015 season. Isn’t six weeks of not having Snider in 2009 worth having him for six months in 2015?

It's rare to get such candor from a front-office type. As a fan, it's refreshing to get a look inside the nuts and bolts. Now that I've distracted you, I need to get to work on my "forecast".